It is the big question swirling around government.
On that central issue rests the fate of the government's economic policy.
If it is pain cancelled that means better real incomes for voters.
It means higher tax receipts for the government, lower levels of borrowing and more leeway to spend money on public services.
And, of course, confidence tends to beget confidence.
If consumers - the most important drivers of the UK economy - feel the world around them is feeling positive, they tend to spend.
For businesses, it is not a lot different.
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