The UK economy will see three years
of "relatively slow growth" as it comes to rely more on trade and less
on consumer spending, a think tank says.
But it said rising demand for exports would offset this somewhat.
A separate survey has found optimism in the financial services sector hit its lowest level since the 2008 crash.
Sterling has fallen by 17% against the dollar since the UK voted to quit the European Union last June, increasing import costs and pushing up shop prices.
In its latest forecast, the EY Item Club said it expected inflation to rise to 3.1% by the final quarter of 2017 before easing back to 2% by the end of 2018.
On top of this, it said unemployment was likely to climb from 4.8% in the final quarter of last year to more than 6% by the end of 2018.
"[These factors are] expected to have a knock-on impact on consumer spending, as growth in disposable incomes is eroded," the think tank said.
Export growth
But the agency also said that a "weaker pound and a softer domestic market" were likely to encourage higher levels of UK exports, as businesses seek income opportunities overseas.It expects exports to increase by 3.3% this year and 5.2% in 2018.
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