Criticism of fiscal policy
- The government may have poor information about the state of the economy and struggle to have the best information about what the economy needs.
- Time lags. To increase government spending will take time. It could take several months for a government decision to filter through into the economy and actually affect AD. By then it may be too late.
- Crowding out. Some economists argue that expansionary fiscal policy (higher government spending) will not increase AD, because the higher government spending will crowd out the private sector. This is because government have to borrow from the private sector who will then have lower funds for private investment.
- Government spending is inefficient. Free market economists argue that higher government spending will tend to be wasted on inefficient spending projects. Also, it can then be difficult to reduce spending in the future because interest groups put political pressure on maintaining stimulus spending as permanent.
- Higher borrowing costs. Under certain conditions, expansionary fiscal policy can lead to higher bond yields, increasing the cost of debt repayments.
- Criticisms of Fiscal Policy – More detail on criticisms of fiscal policy
Evaluation of fiscal policy
The success of fiscal policy will depend on several factors, such as
- It depends on the size of the multiplier. If the multiplier effect is large, then changes in government spending will have a bigger effect on overall demand.
- It depends on the state of the economy. Fiscal policy is most effective in a deep recession where monetary policy is insufficient to boost demand. In a deep recession (liquidity trap). Higher government spending will not cause crowding out because the private sector saving has increased substantially. See: Liquidity trap and fiscal policy – why fiscal policy is more important during a liquidity trap.
- It depends on other factors in the economy. For example, if the government pursue expansionary fiscal policy, but interest rates rise and the global economy is in a recession, it may be insufficient to boost demand.
- Bond yields. If there is concern over the state of government finances, the government may not be able to borrow to finance fiscal policy. Countries in the Eurozone experienced this problem in the 2008-13 recession.
Brief history of fiscal policy
- Keynes advocated the use of fiscal policy as a way to stimulate economies during the great depression.
- Fiscal Policy was particularly used in the 50s and 60s to stabilise economic cycles. These policies were broadly referred to as ‘Keynesian’
- In the 1970s and 80s governments tended to prefer monetary policy for influencing the economy. Fiscal policy became more prominent during the great depression of 2008-13
