AS YOU WERE
Conservative majority less than 40
Shock factor: 4
This will be a severe disappointment to the Conservatives. There will be a lot of Tory fury directed at May for blowing what was considered a golden opportunity to build an impregnable majority. Her authority as leader will be badly compromised and it will be shredded if she has done worse than David Cameron two years ago. He and George Osborne would struggle to conceal their amusement at her distress.
A much diminished prime minister will have to be wary about firing ministers in a post-election reshuffle because she cannot afford to create too many enemies on her backbenches. She will also be vulnerable to backbench pressure from both the hard and soft Brexit wings of her party.
Smallish bands of Tory rebels can force a rethink on any government policy that they don’t like. The House of Lords will be harder to intimidate. An economic downturn in the course of the parliament could see May at risk of being toppled by her party.
Labour’s share of the vote will be a key bone of contention in arguments about Corbyn’s future. His supporters will argue that he is entitled to carry on, at least for a while, if he has improved on Ed Miliband’s 30% share in 2015.
Source: The Observer 4 June
