LEFT HANGING
Hung Parliament. No party has a majority
Shock factor: 8
The Lib Dems used to dream of being kingmakers in this scenario, but after the punishment they took for their 2010-15 coalition with the Tories, they are shy of repeating the experience. Tim Farron, the Lib Dem leader, told the Observer at the beginning of the campaign that he would not go into coalition with anyone.
If the Conservatives are the largest party, and the parliamentary maths work, they might seek to carry on in government with life support provided by the Ulster Unionists. Even if the Tories did stagger on, May’s authority would be smashed. She has triggered an early election when she didn’t have to and thrown away the majority her party had won just two years previously.
If Labour were the largest party, senior figures suggest that they would try to rule as a minority government and dare other parties to bring them down. Labour will be reliant on some cooperation from the contingent of Scottish Nationalist MPs. A formal coalition with the SNP seems less likely.
Brexit negotiations will be even more horrendous for a prime minister operating without a majority. Another election before long would look like a very strong possibility.
Source: the Observer 4 June
